The world and what’s (maybe) next in 2026 – a personal view
Greg Campbell, Partner, Campbell Tickell
2025 was not an easy year to make sense of. Even the Financial Times’s fabled journalists only got 13 of their 20 predicitions for the year ahead right – their lowest ever. It was a year with more than its share of “What just happened?” moments.
Should that deter us from trying to make sense of 2026 and what may be coming down the track? Of course not!
The United States
In 2025 the big imponderable was Donald Trump and how he would operate in practice. In a sense though, all the signs were there: look at the Heritage Foundation’s 900 page ‘Project 2025’ blueprint for what the regime should do in Trump’s second term; and look at the people Trump was lining up for his key advisor roles – no sign of the ‘Washington insiders’ we saw in his first term; rather a focus on MAGA people the President felt he could trust.
This doesn’t mean it has all gone swimmingly. One year on, Trump is historically unpopular. The Heritage Foundation is haemorrhaging staff after a recent implosion (CEO Kevin Roberts defending the Foundation’s platforming of Nazi-sympathising antisemite Nick Fuentes). Trump has had major fallouts with former allies, and while back on terms with Elon Musk, there is clear damage within the MAGA base, following the Epstein Files cover-up and the public split with former acolyte Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Nonetheless, recent events in Venezuela with the overthrow of President Maduro, and the economic shoring up of President Milei’s regime in Argentina, show the Monroe Doctrine remains alive in current US policy, linked to unwillingness to engage with Europe in supporting Ukraine. This is combined with the sentiments expressed in the new US National Security Strategy, which in effect paints Europe as the ‘bad guys’, while largely ignoring Russia, playing down China and not even mentioning North Korea. Topped off by a seemingly sustained push to take over Greenland, notwithstanding the possibility it could damage NATO irreparably, while delighting Putin.
This has probably passed many American voters by, as common disaffection with Trump focuses on the rising cost of living – price reduction ‘promises’ were a major focus of his 2024 election campaign – and the future of affordable healthcare. It will be hard for Trump to retain his ‘trifecta’ in 2026, with control of the House of Representatives likely to switch to the Democrats, and even a (slim) chance of the Senate also switching. Lose either one, and Trump’s aim to maintain his agenda in the second half of his term becomes much harder.
The Americas
Beyond the US, there are a series of elections to watch in 2026. It isn’t like 2024, when around half the people in the world had national elections, but there are a number of intriguing contests. In ‘America’s backyard’, Colombia’s presidential election appears too close to call, amid continuing upheaval and violence, which saw one leading candidate murdered last year. Brazil though may offer some pushback to the US-promoted rightward shift across Latin America, with Lula competing for his fourth term in office.
Asia and the Middle East
Bangladesh’s first poll since Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League was overthrown 18 months ago will see a host of parties competing amid efforts to deliver constitutional change.
In Israel, with a general election in October (maybe sooner), the key will be whether the anti-Netanyahu opposition can stay united, or whether he can again wrongfoot them in a contest with significant wider potential implications across the Middle East.
Are the Islamic Republic’s days now numbered in Iran? It’s too early to assume the imminent fall of Ayatollah Khamenei and his IRGC enforcers. But the country’s parlous economic situation makes continuation of present arrangements increasingly less likely. And Iran’s influence beyond its own borders is not to be underestimated, for all that its role in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen has significantly reduced in the past two years.
Africa
Africa will see an intriguing contest in Gambia, with a presidential election largely a referendum on Adama Barrow’s efforts to remain in power beyond 10 years. In Ethiopia, the question is whether the general election allows PM Abiy Ahmed to strengthen his grip on power further (spoiler alert: almost certainly).
Europe
In Europe, a key contest is Hungary’s general election. After 15 years in power, PM Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz Party face serious opposition (despite their sustained efforts to undermine democracy and the rule of law) from former colleague Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party. Orbán however will not go lightly. Meanwhile populist approaches could also affect Portugal’s presidential election (completing shortly), and Sweden’s general election, where Russia is likely to try influencing matters, as is equally likely with Armenia’s general election.
Protest and political change
There will of course be elections in many other countries. Some to watch out for: Thailand in February; Nepal in March; Peru in April; and general elections in Denmark and New Zealand.
It isn’t all about elections though. A growing trend unsettling governments and established elites in recent years has been the ‘Gen Z protests’. We have seen young people in countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and most recently Iran coming together via social media to rail against poverty, inequality and corruption. This has contributed to governments being overthrown in Peru, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Madagascar. Who can say where may be next.
Conflict
Sadly but inevitably, armed conflict continues in many parts of the world. There seems little prospect of the Russia–Ukraine war ending any time soon, as Trump and his team discover it takes longer than the President’s anticipated “one day” to resolve. And while the Israel–Hamas conflict is comparatively quiet for now, how long that will persist remains to be seen – a possible change of government in Israel could affect matters. Sudan’s civil war and the Congo conflict between DRC government and Rwanda-backed M23 forces are likely to continue.
The United Kingdom
In the UK, the Labour government is struggling. We have witnessed a series of gratuitous missteps from No.10, combined with apparent lack of an overarching strategic vision for the government, a succession of U-turns and feeble communications. Despite its huge parliamentary majority, Labour looks unlikely to be capable of retaining power at the next general election. How votes shift within the Labour/Lib Dem/Greens left/centre left bloc will be critical.
Meanwhile we see Reform, the UK’s own version of the populist right, riding high in the opinion polls, bolstered by a series of Conservative defections. A critical problem though for Nigel Farage is that, if Reform is increasingly seen as a home for disaffected or passed-over Tories, that could count against them. Polls consistently indicate that many Reform voters oppose the Tories, while if the Conservatives shift further right to challenge Reform (at this point a merger of the parties appears unlikely), they could lose yet more southern ‘Blue Wall’ seats to the Lib Dems.
Nonetheless, it makes absolute sense for many organisations, such as in the housing sector, to consider what may change and how they would engage with a Reform-led government. Reform administrations at local level are already a reality.
May’s local elections could well see Labour receive a drubbing, not least in Wales and Scotland. It may be hard for Keir Starmer to survive this. Naturally therefore, attention is turning to who might replace him. This isn’t an easy question: Labour has always been far more reticent about replacing leaders outside general election defeats than the Conservatives. Who might the key challenger be: Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, even Andy Burnham (if he can find a route back into parliament)? Or perhaps a mix and match partnership?
One thing is clear: it will require around 80 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest, but on present polling, well over that number could lose their seats at the 2029 general election: what have they to lose if they believe a change of leader is needed now?
The economic backdrop
And finally, while this article has principally focused on the political, it’s crucial to stress that economic factors will significantly impact politics around the globe. For instance:
- As US political turmoil drives financial interests internationally away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and towards gold, what are the policy implications?
- While ESG (Environmental – Social – Governance) based investment becomes less popular in the US than in the UK and EU, what prospect of funds that would have invested in the USA seeking more stable investment environments across the Atlantic (answer – this is already happening);
- If Trump picks an acolyte to chair the Federal Reserve as Jay Powell’s terms ends, and US interest rates fall quicker than expected, how does this affect the international environment?
- Will UK interest rates reduce quickly enough to provide government with more breathing space on its journey to get the UK economy under control?
- Given the parlous state of the Russian economy, how long can Putin continue to maintain a wartime economy?
- At what point will Iran’s leadership no longer be able to resist address their economy’s structural problems (the rial lost 40% of its value last year)?
And lots more.
Where does this all leave us, domestically and internationally? It’s complicated. And any serious organisation – public or private – aiming to maintain its position would be well advised to ramp up its risk and contingency planning. We can be sure this year will see a lot more changes, some anticipated and many unscripted.
To discuss this article, contact Greg Campbell greg.campbell@campbelltickell.com.
